If I'm reading this right, I have to ask - is there any sane person who questions the idea that selection is at least a significant factor? Most people offered the two theories would say "I think both are probably somewhat true." Nailing that down with real data might be tricky, but I can't imagine anyone would argue that there is little or no selection. Anyone know enough sociologists to know how firmly they come down in the causation camp?
Additional note: the offhand remark that same-sex marriages might be more protective because they fought so long and hard for recognition is exactly the sort of blather that shouldn't be in a research article. It might be absolutely true. But we aren't shown any evidence for this, just a conventional wisdom assurance that functions as birdsong, letting us know where the researcher stands on the issue. It would be bad enough in an op-ed. In a professional context, it's just ridiculous.